Recently, the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) released a Gates Foundation-funded report: Has Universal Access to Transfer-Level Courses Changed Student Outcomes at California Community Colleges? Many positive trends are noted in the report, including completion rates for transfer-level math courses, especially statistics and liberal arts math. The authors also point out that more students are earning their associate’s degree and transferring to four-year institutions. However, two underlying issues identified in this report could undermine these otherwise encouraging headlines: selection bias and grade inflation.
This report brings up the issue of selection bias in footnote #17 of the report. It points out that students post-AB 705 are earning a higher overall grade point average (GPA) in their first year in college. The authors go on to state: “This indicates possible selection effects—specifically, that lower-performing students were more likely to stop enrolling, which may explain the improved long-term outcomes.”